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2.0 Methodology 2.5 ANALYSIS Based on the latest inspection data and several other factors, including surface type, functional classifications, last construction date, and PCI, pavement deterioration curves (PDCs) or pavement condition prediction models are generated separately for the local and arterial networks. These curves are imperative for a complete PMP to predict future pavement performance and determine maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) requirements. Figure 2-1 shows a sample PDC with the appropriate M&R. Figure 2-1: Sample Pavement Deterioration Curve 100 a I Very Poor \ Reconstruction no Pavement Life (yrs) To develop an accurate PDC, "suspicious' data / anomalies outside of the maximum and minimum envelopes generated from StreetSaver are filtered out. For example, data with PCI increase significantly with age (recording error) or lack of past inspection data must be removed because pavements are load carrying structures, which degrade over time due to the combined action of environmental and traffic. This data filtering processing is critical because pavements with unusual performance would have substantial impact on the PDC behavior and the pavement life cycle consequently. The final PDCs illustrate that the rate of deterioration is fairly slow in the early years of the pavement's design life. During the first 65 percent to 75 percent of a pavement's design life, which varies based on functional classifications and surface type, a pavement deteriorates approximately 40 percent of its quality, i.e. from a PCI of 100 ("Very Good" condition) to a PCI of 60 ("Fair" condition). However, the rate of deterioration starts to increase rapidly with age after a pavement reaches this point in its life cycle. Typically, a pavement can deteriorate 40 percent in its quality (PC] quickly drops from 60 ("Fair' condition) to 20 ("Very Poor' condition)) in the next 15 percent to 25 percent of its design life. Although the local and arterial networks have different design life spans, both PDCs share similar characteristics because the pavement will crack and these cracks will propagate out and become severe with continued traffic loadings and weathering without any M&R treatment. Therefore, a PCI of 60 is assigned as the critical City of Santa Ana 2018 Pavement Management Program 2-3 55B-16 Very Good Do Nothing 85 — —— — — ——— ———————— ———————————————————— .-. Good Surface Seal i 75 _ _--__—_--- — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — c Fair Overlay 60 ——————————————————— —————————————————— ;o Poor Resurfacing u 40 ——————————————————— ——- -——— --——— — — — — — — E a m a I Very Poor \ Reconstruction no Pavement Life (yrs) To develop an accurate PDC, "suspicious' data / anomalies outside of the maximum and minimum envelopes generated from StreetSaver are filtered out. For example, data with PCI increase significantly with age (recording error) or lack of past inspection data must be removed because pavements are load carrying structures, which degrade over time due to the combined action of environmental and traffic. This data filtering processing is critical because pavements with unusual performance would have substantial impact on the PDC behavior and the pavement life cycle consequently. The final PDCs illustrate that the rate of deterioration is fairly slow in the early years of the pavement's design life. During the first 65 percent to 75 percent of a pavement's design life, which varies based on functional classifications and surface type, a pavement deteriorates approximately 40 percent of its quality, i.e. from a PCI of 100 ("Very Good" condition) to a PCI of 60 ("Fair" condition). However, the rate of deterioration starts to increase rapidly with age after a pavement reaches this point in its life cycle. Typically, a pavement can deteriorate 40 percent in its quality (PC] quickly drops from 60 ("Fair' condition) to 20 ("Very Poor' condition)) in the next 15 percent to 25 percent of its design life. Although the local and arterial networks have different design life spans, both PDCs share similar characteristics because the pavement will crack and these cracks will propagate out and become severe with continued traffic loadings and weathering without any M&R treatment. Therefore, a PCI of 60 is assigned as the critical City of Santa Ana 2018 Pavement Management Program 2-3 55B-16