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*:/ : 11-1 h WA <br />degree a project relies on GHG mitigation measures, CARB recommends that lead agencies prioritize on site <br />design features that reduce emissions, especially from VMf, and direct investments in GHG reductions <br />within the project's region that contribute potential air quality, health, and economic co -benefits. Where <br />further project design or regional investments are infeasible of not proven to be effective, CARB <br />recommends mitigating potential GHG impacts through purchasing and retiring carbon credits. <br />The Scoping Plan scenario is set against what is called the business -as -usual (BA" yardstick that is, what <br />would the GHG emissions look like if the State did nothing at all beyond the existing policies that are <br />required and already in place to achieve the 2020 limit, as shown in Table 8, 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan <br />Emissions Deductions Gap. It includes the existing renewables requirements, advanced clean cars, the "10 <br />percent" Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and the SB 375 program for more vibrant communities, among <br />others. However, it does not include a range of new policies of measures that have been developed of put <br />into statute over the past two years. Also shown in the table, the known commitments are expected to result <br />in emissions that are 60 MMTCO2e above the target in 2030. If the estimated GHG reductions from the <br />known commitments are not realized due to delays in implementation or technology deployment, the post <br />- <br />2020 Cap -and -Trade Program would deliver the additional GHG reductions in the sectors it covers to ensure <br />the 2030 target is achieved. <br />Table 8 2017 Climate Chanae Scopina Plan Emissions Reductions Gap <br />Modeling Scenario <br />2030 GHG Emissions <br />MMTCO2e <br />Reference Scenario (Businesses -Usual) <br />389 <br />With Known Commitments <br />320 <br />2030 GHG Target <br />260 <br />Gap to 2030 Target <br />60 <br />Source: CARB 2017c. <br />Table 9, 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan Emissions Change by Sector, provides estimated GHG emissions by <br />sector, compared to 1990 levels, and the range of GHG emissions for each sector estimated for 2030. <br />Table 9 2017 Climate Chanae Scopina Plan Emissions Chanae by Sector <br />Scoping Plan Sector <br />1990 <br />MMTCO2e <br />2030 Proposed Plan Ranges <br />MMTCO2e <br />% Change from 1990 <br />Agricultural <br />26 <br />24-25 <br />-8%to 4% <br />Residential and Commercial <br />44 <br />3840 <br />-14%to -9% <br />Electric Power <br />108 <br />30-53 <br />-72%to51% <br />High GWP <br />3 <br />8-11 <br />267%to 367% <br />Industrial <br />98 <br />83-90 <br />-15%to-8% <br />Recycling and Waste <br />7 <br />8-9 <br />14%to 29% <br />Transportation (including TCU) <br />152 <br />103-111 <br />-32%to-27% <br />Net Sink' <br />-7 <br />TBD <br />TBD <br />Sub Total <br />431 <br />294-339 <br />-32%to-21% <br />Cap -and -Trade Program <br />NA <br />24-79 <br />NA <br />75C-161 <br />