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4. Economic Impact
<br />To effectively estimate the economic impact of the Project and the Industrial Prototype, AECOM developed 4
<br />economic models for the two project options from construction and ongoing operations at full buildout and stable
<br />occupancy. Total impacts are the combined direct, indirect, and induced impacts created by the initial change in the
<br />economy. In general terms, the direct economic effects of the project begin as construction capital is expended, later
<br />evolving into economic activities that become a permanent part of the modeled economy (e.g. new business and new
<br />residents). The indirect economic effects follow a similar pattern evolving from construction -oriented spending
<br />patterns to establish business -to -business transactions that support the newly housed economic functions within the
<br />Site. Finally, the additional consumer spending from residents and the increased collective labor income pool are
<br />represented through induced effects. Construction impacts are modelled as one-time impacts. Impacts from
<br />operations, maintenance, business activity, workers incomes, and residents' expenditures (net of transfers) continue
<br />to occur (estimated on an annual basis).
<br />Direct Impacts: Result from the short-term impact generated by contracting and construction and the ongoing
<br />operations of businesses and residents that occur at the Site. (Example: Sales from On -site Retail)
<br />Indirect Impacts: Result from local businesses directly impacted by the construction and operations of the projects
<br />through the purchase of materials, supplies, goods or services from secondary firms off the Site. (Example: Sales of
<br />intermediary goods for the elaboration of final goods sold at On -site Retail)
<br />Induced Impacts: Result from the consumption spending of employees that are directly or indirectly affected by the
<br />projects. This includes the household consumption of both workers and residents of the Project. (Example: Sales of
<br />household consumption items from employees of On -Site Retail)
<br />AECOM applied a Multi -Regional Input Output (MRIO) model using IMPLAN data that includes detailed local
<br />spending multipliers and regional trade flow calculators for every zip code in Orange County. The model
<br />approximates the direct, indirect, and induced impacts on every industry sector in the county. This allows for a
<br />detailed estimation of the probable total economic impact of new economic inputs, such as employment in particular
<br />industry sectors or household spending, on the local economy.
<br />IMPLAN estimates impacts on Employment, Labor Income, Value Added (Labor Income, Proprietor Income, Other
<br />Property Income, Taxes) and Output (Value Added, Intermediate Expenditures). Note that these figures are not
<br />representative of taxable sales or taxes accrued to the City of Santa Ana, and their elaboration represent an
<br />approximation of impacts on a large geographical area. Table 17 - Table 20 show results.
<br />Table 17: Project Construction Economic Impacts
<br />Estimated Economic Impact of the Project Construction
<br />City of Santa Ana
<br />Impact
<br />Employment
<br />Labor Income
<br />Value Added
<br />Output
<br />Direct
<br />2,414
<br />$200,000,000
<br />$268,000,000
<br />$488,000,000
<br />Indirect
<br />65
<br />$3,600,000
<br />$5,500,000
<br />$9,000,000
<br />Induced
<br />12
<br />$600,000
<br />$1,200,000
<br />$2,000,000
<br />Total
<br />21491
<br />$204,000,000
<br />$275,000,000
<br />$498,000,000
<br />Rest of Orange
<br />Count
<br />Impact
<br />Employment
<br />Labor Income
<br />Value Added
<br />Output
<br />Direct
<br />N/A
<br />N/A
<br />N/A
<br />N/A
<br />Indirect
<br />956
<br />$56,000,000
<br />$88,000,000
<br />$137,000,000
<br />Induced
<br />1,007
<br />$55,000,000
<br />$102,000,000
<br />$160,000,000
<br />Total
<br />1,963
<br />$111 000 000
<br />$190 000 000
<br />$297 000 000
<br />Total Countywide
<br />off 4,454
<br />$315,000,000
<br />$465,000,000
<br />$795,000,000
<br />Note: Numbers are rounded and may not sum
<br />Source: IMPLAN, AECOM
<br />75C-649
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