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Cabrillo at First Mixed-Use Residential Air Quality, Global Climate Change, HRA, and Energy Impact Analysis 66 19386 First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan (2014) The First Update to the Scoping Plan was approved by CARB in May 2014 and builds upon the initial Scoping Plan with new strategies and recommendations. In 2014, CARB revised the target using the GWP values from the IPCC AR4 and determined that the 1990 GHG emissions inventory and 2020 GHG emissions limit is 431 MMTCO2e. CARB also updated the State’s 2020 NAT emissions estimate to account for the effect of the 2007–2009 economic recession, new estimates for future fuel and energy demand, and the reductions required by regulation that were recently adopted for motor vehicles and renewable energy. CARB’s projected statewide 2020 emissions estimate using the GWP values from the IPCC AR4 is 509.4 MMTCO2e. 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan In response to the 2030 GHG reduction target, CARB adopted the 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan at a public meeting held in December 2017. The 2017 Scoping Plan outlines the strategies the State will implement to achieve the 2030 GHG reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels. The 2017 Scoping Plan also addresses GHG emissions from natural and working lands of California, including the agriculture and forestry sectors. The 2017 Scoping Plan considered the Scoping Plan Scenario and four alternatives for achieving the required GHG reductions but ultimately selected the Scoping Plan Scenario. CARB states that the Scoping Plan Scenario “is the best choice to achieve the State’s climate and clean air goals.”17 Under the Scoping Plan Scenario, the majority of the reductions would result from the continuation of the Cap-and-Trade regulation. Additional reductions are achieved from electricity sector standards (i.e., utility providers to supply at least 50 percent renewable electricity by 2030), doubling the energy efficiency savings at end uses, additional reductions from the LCFS, implementing the short-lived GHG strategy (e.g., hydrofluorocarbons), and implementing the mobile source strategy and sustainable freight action plan. The alternatives were designed to consider various combinations of these programs, as well as consideration of a carbon tax in the event the Cap-and-Trade regulation is not continued. However, in July 2017, the California Legislature voted to extend the Cap-and-Trade regulation to 2030. Implementing this Scoping Plan will ensure that California’s climate actions continue to promote innovation, drive the generation of new jobs, and achieve continued reductions of smog and air toxics. The ambitious approach draws on a decade of successful programs that address the major sources of climate-changing gases in every sector of the economy: ▪ More Clean Cars and Trucks: The plan sets out far-reaching programs to incentivize the sale of millions of zero-emission vehicles, drive the deployment of zero-emission trucks, and shift to a cleaner system of handling freight statewide. ▪ Increased Renewable Energy: California’s electric utilities are ahead of schedule meeting the requirement that 33 percent of electricity come from renewable sources by 2020. The Scoping Plan guides utilities to 50 percent renewables, as required under SB 350. ▪ Slashing Super-Pollutants: The plan calls for a significant cut in super-pollutants such as methane and HFC refrigerants, which are responsible for as much as 40 percent of global warming. ▪ Cleaner Industry and Electricity: California’s renewed cap-and-trade program extends the declining cap on emissions from utilities and industries and the carbon allowance auctions. The auctions will continue to fund investments in clean energy and efficiency, particularly in disadvantaged communities. ▪ Cleaner Fuels: The Low Carbon Fuel Standard will drive further development of cleaner, renewable transportation fuels to replace fossil fuels. ▪ Smart Community Planning: Local communities will continue developing plans which will further link transportation and housing policies to create sustainable communities. ▪ Improved Agriculture and Forests: The Scoping Plan also outlines innovative programs to account for and reduce emissions from agriculture, as well as forests and other natural lands. 17 California Air Resources Board, California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, November 2017, https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scoping_plan_2017.pdf 666/27/2022 Planning Commission 2 –119