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City of Santa Ana <br />Pension Obligation Bonds <br />Scenario 1 - Base Case <br />Amounts in $000s <br />Assumptions <br />Expected Annual Return <br />Annual Volatility <br />Results <br />Probability of Success <br />Average Present Value Benefit <br />Percentiles <br />P5 <br />P25 <br />P50 <br />P75 <br />P95 <br />750.0 <br />600.0 <br />450.0 <br />LL <br />W <br />w 300.0 <br />m <br />a <br />150.0 <br />(150.0) <br />7.000% <br />12.000% <br />85.80% <br />121,331.263 Discounted at Actuarial Discount Rate <br />(34,036.600) (5% of outcomes less than) <br />26,532.388 (25% of outcomes less than) <br />88,342.078 (Median) <br />171,858.573 (25% of outcomes greater than) <br />387,844.617 (5% of outcomes greater than) <br />SIMULATIONS (ORDERED BY PV BENEFIT) <br />,)tress iestacenarios <br />Base Case Stress Test 1 Stress Test 2 Stress Test 3 <br />-20% in First Year, <br />7% Annual Returns 6% Annual Returns 5% Annual Returns <br />7% After <br />PV Benefit 122,177.961 122,177.961 122,177.961 122,177.961 <br />PV Future UALs due to Act Losses - (88,563.780) (43,497.983) (77,312.069) <br />Net PV Benefit 122,177.961 33,614.181 78,679.978 44,865.893 <br />Net PV Benefit (% of Par Amount) 34.0% 9.4% 21.9% 12.5% <br />BofA Securities - Preliminary Analysis 3/10/2021 Page 14 of 18 <br />