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City of Santa Ana <br />Pension Obligation Bonds <br />Scenario 2 - Fresh Start <br />Amounts in $000s <br />Assumptions <br />Expected Annual Return <br />Annual Volatility <br />Results <br />Probability of Success <br />Average Present Value Benefit <br />Percentiles <br />P5 <br />P25 <br />P50 <br />P75 <br />P95 <br />7.000% <br />12.000% <br />86.15% <br />206,154.594 Discounted at Actuarial Discount Rate <br />(54,479.569) (5% of outcomes less than) <br />45,305.589 (25% of outcomes less than) <br />147,263.638 (Median) <br />290,628.586 (25% of outcomes greater than) <br />657,900.563 (5% of outcomes greater than) <br />750.0 <br />600.0 <br />450.0 <br />LL <br />w 300.0 <br />m <br />a <br />150.0 <br />(150.0) <br />SIMULATIONS (ORDERED BY PV BENEFIT) <br />Stress Test Scenarios <br />Base Case <br />Stress Test 1 <br />Stress Test 2 <br />Stress Test 3 <br />-20% in First Year, <br />7% Annual Returns <br />6% Annual Returns <br />5% Annual Returns <br />7% After <br />PV Benefit <br />207,541.398 <br />207,541.398 <br />207,541.398 <br />207,541.398 <br />PV Future UALs due to Act Losses <br />- <br />(160,042.940) <br />(72,732.736) <br />(129,042.386) <br />Net PV Benefit <br />207,541.398 <br />47,498.458 <br />134,808.662 <br />78,499.011 <br />Net PV Benefit (% of Par Amount) <br />32.0% <br />7.3% <br />20.8% <br />12.1% <br />BofA Securities - Preliminary Analysis 3/10/2021 Page 14 of 18 <br />