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ORgnG <br />3 G <br />0 , <br />$3,500 <br />$3,000 <br />$2,500 <br />$2,000 <br />$1,500 <br />$1,000 <br />$500 <br />$0 <br />VUB <br />RFP No. 21-025 <br />EXHIBIT B <br />Monte Carlo Simulation <br />Monte Carlo Simulation <br />Ending Portfolio Balance <br />Probabilitv of Success <br />Results change with each iteration <br />and Bond Structure <br />! 87% with 90% Refinancing <br />• 84% with 50% Refinancing <br />1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2122 23 24 25 <br />• Monte Carlo Simulation compares ending portfolio balance: Pension <br />Bonds vs CALPERS UAL payments over 25 years. <br />• Calculates results based on running 10,000 different (random) scenarios <br />• CalPERS Return over 25-year period <br />• Expected Return = 7.0% (Standard Deviation = 10.6%) <br />