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overcrowding existing units. On an aveFage annual basis, this needed expansion of the housing stock amounts to 1,698 units, approximately the average annual rate of residential construction over the decade 1970-1980, but sharply higher than the construction rates found in the last few years. Replacement-Induced Demand Replacement demand is defined as the number of units needed to replace dwellings which become dilapidated over time. Usually, replacement demand is estimated at between one and two percent of existing housing per year. Given Santa Ana's large stock of older dwelling units and deterioration trends, it is estimated that approximately 1.5 percent of the stock needs to be replaced at any one time; this is based on a 50-year recycling period for every unit. This demand rate results in the need for about 5,050 units during the period 1980-1985. Demand Summars Total demand for additional housing over the period 1980-1985 consists of: Population-Induced Demand: Replacement Demand: Total: 8,490 units 5,050 units ~,540 units This projected demand implies the need for construction of about 2,700 new dwelling units per year, on the average, a rate very far in excess of historical trends. The total projected demand for over 13,500 units also implies the need for build-out of a large amount of now-vacant land. Assuming, for example, that all of this projected new construction need were to be at 30 dwelling units per acre, over 450 acres of land would be needed; with lower density assumptions, acreage required to house projected demand obviously increases. As will be seen in a subsequent section, this amount of now-vacant residential land simply does not exist. The implications of these projections -- intense demand for new housing, combined with historical production volumes and limitations on the amount of available land -- are that the City's current overcrowded conditions will worsen over the near term; this results from continuing population growth pressures occurring within a context in which housing production cannot keep up with demand. The situation also leads to the conclusion that housing replacement will lag behind need. Over the longer-term, perhaps beginning mid-decade, growth pressures are expected to slow, resulting in a stabilization of the housing situation in the City. Type, Tenure and Pricing Requirements Of Future Demand Projected demand as shown above can be disaggregated into the' following unit mix and price classifications, as shown below. These projections are based upon indicated income distribution of the projected new population and historical trends toward homeownership/tenancy preferences of various income groups as modified by the increasing difficulty of families to afford ownership housing, discussed elsewhere in this Housing Element. ll