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Historical enrollment fitures sho~n for Garden Stove in Table $ indicate that District's enrollment has declined from $8,7?6 in 1979 to $$,209 in 1986 which is Just over 10 percent. A disproportionate share of this decline -- 2,017 students -- has occurred in hil~h school grades. O{ the 3,557 decline in students, only 672 ~ere in elementary school with the remaining decline occurring at the intermediate level. Contrary to delining districtwide enrollment, Garden Grove District schools on the Santa Aha River corridor have experienced increasing enrollments which are projected to continue. Table 6 sho~s the current enrollment £igures in these schools. Enrollment Factors The school enrollment increases in Santa Aria have been in contrast to an overall decline of the school age population nationally; specifically, when contrasted to surrounding Orange County cii~ies. During the years 1946-64, birth rates in all parts o£ the United States increased at a rapid rate, but, after 1964, these same rates £ell almost as £ast as they had risen. Demographers are now discussing a second "boom" which is an echo of the original "baby boom." Thus, on a nation,ride basis, general school enrollments are expected to rise, first at the elementary level and £ina11¥ at the intermediate and high school level by the end of this decade and the early part of the next. A recent study by the Western Interstate Comission for Higher Education, indicates that states such as Cali£ornia, Colorado and Utah are expected to turn out 19% more graduates by the end of the 1990's than they are currently producing. Projections such as these are based on current data and drop-out rates. If the drop-out rates for both racial and language minority groups were to decline during this time period, the number o£ graduates would conversely increase. Another policy factor which could - i,d.~u~.~ ~',~ da,o is a ~.~,~e'-in United States imigration policy. According to Dr. Carlos krce, Executive Director of the National Chicano Council on Higher Education, the granting of a~nesty or the enhancement of the status of nonresident aliens will very likely affect school enrollments in the border states such as California and Texas. Other factors which might lead to increasing enrollments are the continuing migration of United States residents to the sunbelt areas, ~hich of course, includes California. Ail regions in the country, except the mountain states, sho~ed a decrease in the number of live births from 1960-1977. These same states also showed a significant outmigration to other areas, particularly the southwest. Other similar demographic considerations ~hich indeed can influence our enrollment is the fact that the vast majority of the states in which the total fertility rate was above replacement level fertility are in the west. Women o£ Spanish origin have the hilhest nu~her o£ li£etime births expected (2,428 per 1,000 women), £ollo~ed by black ~omen (2,258 per 1,000 women), and other white women (2,096 per 1,000 women). Because of their s~a11 percentage of the total nation, ride population, Asians .have not been included in ~any demographic studies. Local experience seems to indicate that as a group, Asian ~omen experience a higher than average rate of births per 1,000 women. 8