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PLANNING FACTORS As indicated earlier in this element, there are many factors that impact student enrollment at any given time. ~hjor determinants of enrollment, however, are population and growth rates, household size, birthrates, migration, and indirectly the City's economy and overall quality of life. This section of the element will discuss some of these factors as they relate to the City's development and long range planning for school facilities. Population and Bousir~ The City of Santa Ana's current population is 225,774 according to figures cempiled by the California State Department of Finance (IX)F). (This figure is based upon DOF's annual housing survey which uses the number of housing units as the basis for determining an areats population). As can be seen in Table 13, the City's population has gro~ at an average rate of approximtely 1.6 percent per year since 1980 when the population was 203,713. This has resulted in a population increase of 8.1 pe~rcent over this time period. Cemparatively, the housing stock has increased by an average o£ only 4.9 percent over that same six year time period from 67,181 in 1980 to 70,487 in 1986. This is an average growth of approximately .67 percent per year. The lack o£ available housing in the City has created severe overcrowding problems in some of the City's older neighborhoods where the housing is more a£fordable. Indicative o£ the overcrowding, the average increase in the number o£ households over this period was 1.2 percent. According to State guidelines, overcrowding is defined as a household which has more than 1.01 persons p~,, rc :,,;. T;~ li,~.~ c~.,_as repor~ '.hat appr~xlmately 17.2 percent of the Ci*cy's households are overcrowded. The City's Code Enforcement staff, however, estimates that overcrowded households comprise a larger percentage of the total than is represented by the census. Code en/orcement activities as well as the pro. orion of af£ordable housing of all types will help to mitigate the overcro~ting situation. The overcrowding has resulted in larger household sizes and an inability of the District to predict enrollment based upon standard calculations o£ expected students per household. P/hile there is no hard data upon which to quantify the impact, undocumented residents and their families contribute significantly to the increased enrollment experienced by the District. It should be noted that there is not a direct correlation between increased housing production and an increase in population. Population increases are more a function of job availability; the level and quality of City services, and social and cultural enviroement/a~enities than availability of housing, though housing is a factor. Approximately half of the population increase in the past ten years has not come from new development, but £rem multiple households sharing existing units. This phenomena is home out by data in Table 13 frem 1981 to 1986 which show a 1.6 percent average annual increase in population; a .67 percent average annual increase in housing units; a 1.2 percent average annual increase in households per year, and an increase from 2.88 persons per household to 3.27 persons per household over this time period. 22