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047 ~/hile the i~pact of much of the City's approved residential development has not yet been felt in school enrollment because many of these units have not yet been constructed, there is an indicator of the number of students that will be generated from these units. "Impact of Residential Development on School Enrollment in Santa Aha,' a study conducted by Cotton/Beland/Associates in March 1986 (Appendix A), provides data that indicate the number of students generated by both single-family and multi-family developments. This report states that "Census data and building permit data from the City together with recent population projections from the California Department of Finance~ indicate that increases in school population have probably resulted from changes in household size and structure much more than from growth due to ne~ construction. In addition, apartment development would be expected to have little impact on school enrollment, particularly for large projects.'* This view is supported by the fact that of the 15 elementary schools that are currently over capacity, only four (Lo~e11, Grant, Remington and Roosevelt) are located in the hilh growth areas of the City (300 + new units). Four of the proposed sites are in medium growth areas (25-300 units) and five are in areas of low growth (0-100 units) based on units permitted over the past three years. The location of the proposed 11 new elementary school sites are sho~rn in Figure 7. These facilities will be discussed further in the following section on Housing Alternat ives. Based upon the data presented above, it is apparent that the City will continue to experience population growth and much of this growth will be in the Spanish-speaking segment of the city's population. Because females in this group have a higher than average birthrate, it is expected that the school enrollment figures will likewise continue to rise. The overcrowding situation in the City's housing stock is also expected to continue even given the significant increase in new units approved over the past few years. While construction of new residential projects will relieve overcrowding in the short-term, the subsequent slowdown in new development coupled with the increase in population is expected to render a continued shortage in the amount of available housing. Facilities Needs and Housing Alternatives The enrollment and population data presented in this element support the contention of the SAUSD Co~nity Task Force on School Facilities in their 1984 report: 'Santa Ana will continue to experience growth within its school age population .... considering the £act that nearly every school currently exceeds its design capacity(82%), and the above-mentioned growth, it is obvious that any new growth will necessitate the need for additional classroom space." Because there are simply not enough classroums in current school facilities to meet student housing needs, new construction has been the obvious focus of the SAUSD's long range planning. In Garden Grove, the alternative of new construction is not available because of State restrictions on construction in areas of declining enrollments. This puts the GGUSD in a position of serious shortage of classroom space 28