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021 Current and Projected £nrollmen~ The SAUSD is responsible for educating more than 37,000 students during the current 1987/88 school year. In addition, Garden Grove has 16 schools ~est of the Santa Aha River that serve 7,972 Santa~An~ students even though only five of these schools are located within this City. Orange Unified School District serves 610 students that reside in Santa Aha, and TustinUnified serves 595 Santa Aha students. The 1987-88 student enrollment total for Santa Aha is approximately 47,500 ~hen special students are included. ks can be seen in Table 1, enrollment data £ro~ SAUSD indicates an increase of more than 5,200 rngular students over the next five years and an additional 1,500 in the following five years. Garden Grove will increase its student population by mere than 539 over the next six years as can be seen from the projections in Table 2. This increase ~rill include 231 Santa Ana students by 1990 as sho~n in Table 3 ~?flich indicates the projected enrollments for Garden Grove's Santa Aha students. Enrollments in Santa Aha Uni£ied and Garden Grove Unified will increase by more than 12,000 over the next ten years, taking total enrollment in the City fro~ approximately 47,000 to more than 60,000. The increase in students over this same ten-year period in the Tustin and Orange Districts will be proportionately smaller due to the smaller nt~nber of Santa Ana students they serve -- 1,200 of 47,000. A conservative estimate of their growth would be 100 additional students. In addition, the growth in Special Education and other special programs is expected to increase from 1,275 to 1,650 during this period in the Santa Aha Unified District and from 100 to 300 in the Garden Grove District. The projected rate of growth in student population for Santa &ia Unified is more than five percent over the next five years, and an additional four percent by 1998. In the Garden Grove Unified District, the growth rate is slo~er, averaging less than one percent annually through 1990 and increasing to 1.5 percent by 1994. 0verall, the rate of student enrollment increases is higher than the City's population growth rate ~hich has averaged 1.6 percent annually since 1980. The current population of 225,774 is projected to increase by nine percent to 246,737 by 1990 and an additional nine percent to 256,368 by 1995 according to the Orange County Forecast and Analysis Center. Student enrollment as a percentage of total population will remain stable during this growth period -- it is presently 21 percent and is projected to be at 21 percent in 1995 also. Enrollment Histor~ In order to assess future enrollment, it is i~portant to analyze past enrollments and acknowledge any trends in order to make projections for future enrollment as accurate as possible. For this purpose, data for the santa Aha District has been taken fro~ the "Five Year Plan for Student Enrollment and Housing" ~hich indicates the total number of students by grade level for the last five years. These figures, shown in Table 4, reflect the enrollment of 'regular" students only and does not include students in special programs. When special students are included, the totals would be at least 1,200 students greater than indicated.