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This section explains the method for estimating the current and potential number of bicycle <br />commuters in Orange County municipalities. Census data, in combination with national commuting <br />statistics from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and EPA estimates of standard <br />emissions rates for cars, give a rough projection of future bicycle ridership within Orange County, <br />along with trip reduction and air quality benefits. <br />Calculations for each city in Orange County are included in this Plan to meet Caltrans Bicycle <br />Transportation Account requirements (a) to provide "the estimated number of existing bicycle <br />commuters in the Plan area and the estimated increase in the number of bicycle commuters resulting <br />from implementation of the Plan." <br />According to the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), the average work commute time has <br />remained close to 20 minutes since 1983. In 2001, averaging all modes, the commute time was 23 <br />minutes. Assuming an average speed of 10 miles per hour, a cyclist traveling for 23 minutes covers <br />approximately four miles, which would be equivalent to a 9- minute motor vehicle trip (traveling at <br />about 30 mph) . <br />Using this data as a baseline allows assumptions to be made about prospective and current bicycle <br />ridership in Orange County. Estimates are provided in each municipality's respective section in <br />chapter 3 of this document. <br />214 ®CTA Commuter Bikeways Strategic Plan <br />