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Popeclosure Estimates <br />HUD has developed a model for predicting where foreclosures are likely. That model estimates serious <br />delinquency rates using data on the leading causes of foreclosures - subprime loans (HMDA Census Tract <br />data on high cost and highly leveraged loans), Increasing unemployment (BLS data on unemployment rate <br />change), and fall in home values (FHFA data on house price change). The predicted serious delinquency rate <br />is then used to apportion the state total counts of foreclosure starts (from the Mortgage Bankers Association) <br />and REOs (from RealtyTrac) to individual block groups. <br />Total Housing Units to receive a mortgage between 2004 and 2007: 685 <br />Percent of Housing Units with a high cost mortgage between 2004 and 2007: 31.2 <br />Percent of Housing Units 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: 18.15 <br />Number of Foreclosure Starts in past year: 60 <br />Number of Housing Units Real Estate Owned July 2009 to June 2010: 34 <br />HUD is encouraging grantees to have small enough target areas for NSP 3 such that their dollars will have a <br />visible impact on the neighborhood. Nationwide there have been over 1.9 million foreclosure completions In <br />the past two years. NSP 1, 2, and 3 combined are estimated to only be able to address 100,000 to 120,000 <br />foreclosures. To stabilize a neighborhood requires focused investment. <br />Estimated number of properties needed to make an Impact in identified target area (20% of REO In past <br />year): 12 <br />Supporting Data <br />Metropolitan Area (or non-metropolitan area balance) percent fall in home value since peak value (Federal <br />Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index through June 2010):-29.3 <br />Place (if place over 20,000) or county unemployment rate June 2005': 5.7 <br />Place (if place over 20,000) or county unemployment rate June 2010% 14.4 <br />'Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics <br />Market nalysis* <br />HUD Is providing the data above as a tool for both neighborhood targeting and to help Inform the strategy <br />development. Some things to consider: <br />1. Persistent Unemployment. Is this an area with persistently high unemployment? Serious consideration <br />should be given to a rental strategy rather than a homeownership strategy. <br />2. Home Value Change and Vacancy, is this an area where foreclosures are largely due to a combination of <br />falling home values, a recent spike in unemployment, and a relatively low vacancy rate? A down payment <br />assistance program may be an effective strategy. <br />3. Persistently High Vacancy. Are there a high number of substandard vacant addresses In the target area of <br />a community with persistently high unemployment? A demolitlonlland bank strategy with selected acquisition <br />rehab for rental or lease-purchase might be considered. <br />4. Historically low vacancy that is now rising. A targeted strategy of acquisition for homeownership and rental <br />to retain or regain neighborhood stability might be considered. <br />5. Historically high cost rental market. Does this market historically have very high rents with low vacancies? <br />A strategy of acquiring properties and developing them as long-term affordable rental might be considered. <br />Latitude and Lgngitude of corner points <br />-117.867980 33.728837 -117.867680 33.734369 -117.885103 33.734405 -117.885017 33.728873 <br />29A-12