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Prior 5 -year Forecast (Presented September 2013) <br />Major Assumptions: <br />o Conservative 2% annual revenue growth which includes a revenue tax <br />base of $149.3M in 14/15. <br />o Utility Users Tax (UUT) telecom revenues continue to decline in 2013- <br />14 and 2014 -15 <br />o Salary increases forecasted (2% per year 2015116 through 2017118 <br />and 3.25% in 2018119). <br />o Estimated pension costs in anticipation of Public Employee <br />Retirement System actuarial forecast (5 -year estimated cost: <br />$104.8M 2014115 to 2018119). <br />o Health care cost increases as recommended by Personnel <br />0 Water transfer reduction of $1.2M in 2014/15 and $2.4M 2015/16 <br />through 2018/19 <br />0 2% increase for inflation in commodities in 2015/16 thru 2018/19 <br />Prior 5 -year Forecast (Presented September 2013) <br />-.-Revenues Expenditures <br />$240 <br />$235 <br />$230 <br />$225 <br />-S220 <br />.3 <br />$215 <br />—$zlo <br />$205 <br />$200 201.7 <br />$195 <br />1314 tA�lfi ychfi lfiP� 918 j8i19 <br />Revised 5 -year Forecast January 2014 <br />234.5 <br />223.7 <br />Major Assumptions: <br />• Moderate 3% annual revenue growth which includes a higher revenue <br />tax base of $153.5M in 14/15. Important: Higher tax base equates to <br />$4.2M in additional revenue throughout the forecast. <br />• UUT revenues stabilize (previous 2013 -14 value of$24.IM, revised to <br />$24.6M) <br />• No service level or salary schedule changes forecasted <br />• Public Employee Retirement System actuarial forecast reflects current <br />pension formulas w/ increases absorbed (5 -year estimated cost: <br />$98M which is $6.810 less than originally anticipated). <br />• Revised lower health care costs as recommended by Personnel <br />CITY COUNCIL MINUTES 1 OA-1 5 FEBRUARY 4, 2014 <br />