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2015 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br />5.2.2 Metropolitan Water Supply Allocation Plan <br />Metropolitan's imported supplies have been impacted by a number of water supply challenges as noted <br />earlier. In case of extreme water shortage within the Metropolitan service area is the implementation of its <br />Water Supply Allocation Plan, <br />Metropolitan's Board of Directors adopted the WSAP in February 2008 to fairly distribute a limited amount <br />of water supply and applies it through a detailed methodology to reflect a range of local conditions and <br />needs of the region's retail water consumers. <br />The WSAP includes the specific formula for calculating member agency supply allocations and the key <br />implementation elements needed for administering an allocation. Metropolitan's WSAP is the foundation <br />for the urban water shortage contingency analysis required under Water Code Section 10632 and is part <br />of Metropolitan's 2015 UWMP. <br />Metropolitan's WSAP was developed in consideration of the principles and guidelines in Metropolitan's <br />1999 WSDM with the core objective of creating an equitable "needs -based allocation'. The WSAP's <br />formula seeks to balance the impacts of a shortage at the retail level while maintaining equity on the <br />wholesale level for shortages of Metropolitan supplies of up to 50 percent. The formula takes into account <br />a number of factors, such as the impact on retail customers, growth in population, changes in supply <br />conditions, investments in local resources, demand hardening aspects of water conservation savings, <br />recycled water, extraordinary storage and transfer actions, and groundwater imported water needs. <br />The formula is calculated in three steps: 1) based period calculations, 2) allocation year calculations, and <br />3) supply allocation calculations. The first two steps involve standard computations, while the third step <br />contains specific methodology developed for the WSAP: <br />Step 1: Base Period Calculations — The first step in calculating a member agency's water supply <br />allocation is to estimate their water supply and demand using a historical based period with established <br />water supply and delivery data. The base period for each of the different categories of supply and <br />demand is calculated using data from the two most recent non - shortage fiscal years ending 2013 and <br />2014. <br />Step 2: Allocation Year Calculations — The next step in calculating the member agency's water supply <br />allocation is estimating water needs in the allocation year. This is done by adjusting the base period <br />estimates of retail demand for population growth and changes in local supplies. <br />Step 3: Supply Allocation Calculations — The final step is calculating the water supply allocation for <br />each member agency based on the allocation year water needs identified in Step 2. <br />In order to implement the WSAP, Metropolitan's Board of Directors makes a determination on the level of <br />the regional shortage, based on specific criteria, typically in April. The criteria used by Metropolitan <br />includes, current levels of storage, estimated water supplies conditions, and projected imported water <br />demands. The allocations, if deemed necessary, go into effect in July of the same year and remain in <br />effect for a 12 -month period. The schedule is made at the discretion of the Board of Directors. <br />Although Metropolitan's 2015 UWMP forecasts that Metropolitan will be able to meet projected imported <br />demands throughout the projected period from 2020 to 2040, uncertainty in supply conditions can result <br />arcadis.com 75E-64 <br />5 -3 <br />