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CITY OF SANTA ANA CIVIC CENTER FACILITIES STRATEGIC PLAN <br />WATER SUPPLY ASSESSMENT <br />Multi -Dry Year Period Reliability Comparison <br />Multiple -dry years are defined as three or more consecutive years with minimal rainfall within a period of <br />average precipitation. The water demand forecasting model developed for the OC Reliability Study isolated <br />the impacts that weather and future climate can have on water demand through the use of a statistical model. <br />The impacts of hot/dry weather condition are reflected as a percentage increase in water demands from the <br />average condition (1990 - 2014). For a single dry year condition (FY2013 -14), the model projects a six <br />percent increase in demand for the OC Basin area where the City's service area is located (CDM Smith, <br />Final Technical Memorandum #1 of Orange County Reliability Study, April 2016). It is conservatively <br />assumed that a three -year multi dry year scenario is a repeat of the single dry year over three consecutive <br />years (FY 2011 -12 through FY 2013 -14). <br />The City is capable of meeting all customers' demands with significant reserves held by Metropolitan, local <br />groundwater supplies, and conservation in multiple dry years from 2020 through 2040 with a demand <br />increase of six percent from normal demand with significant reserves held by Metropolitan, local <br />groundwater supplies, and conservation. The basis of the water year is displayed in Table 10. <br />Table 10: Basis of Water Year Data <br />Year Type <br />Base Year <br />Volume Available <br />AFY) <br />%of <br />Avera a Sa t <br />Average Year <br />2015 <br />37,008 <br />100% <br />Single -Dry Year <br />2014 <br />39,228 <br />106 %n <br />Multiple -Dry Years I" Year <br />2012 <br />39,228 <br />106% <br />Multiple -Dry Years 2 "1 Year <br />2013 <br />1 39,228 <br />1 106% <br />Multiple -Dry Years 3rd Year <br />2014 <br />39,228 <br />106% <br />Supply and Demand Assessment <br />A comparison between the supply and the demand for projected years between 2020 and 204 is shown in <br />Table 11. As stated above, the available supply will meet the projected demand due to diversified supply <br />and conservation measures. <br />Table 11: Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison (in AFY) <br />Description <br />2020 <br />2025 <br />2030 <br />2035 <br />2040 <br />Supply Totals <br />36,998 <br />39,717 <br />39,989 <br />39,978 <br />40,036 <br />Demand Totals <br />36,998 <br />39,717 <br />39,989 <br />39,978 <br />40,036 <br />Difference <br />0 <br />0 <br />0 <br />0 <br />0 <br />A comparison between the supply and the demand in a single dry year and multiple dry years are shown in <br />Table 12 and Table 13 respectively. As stated above, the available supply will meet projected demand due <br />to diversified supply and conservation measures. <br />E <br />,03 -111 ■ <br />