25A - AGMT WATER ALTERNATIVE STUDY

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Proposal No, 2569.01 Water Enterprise Alternative Energy Feasibility Study 1-17 Construction Cost Trends of Solar Projects ($/W DC) $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 _..._ _. _.... $5.00 $4.00 —CSI Projects (non-residential) $2.00 :NAM projects_ ._ $1.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Nonresidential projects from California Solar Statistics Our team then uses NAM -developed models to ensure consistency across sites and to facilitate the rapid development of the analysis. Our models take into account technology, system size, forecast production, utility savings, site characteristics, and other factors, enabling the evaluation of multiple scenarios across hundreds of sites. NAM's financial models allow for timely and accurate predictions on various applications' costs and benefits. We have worked with customers independently of PV system suppliers to drive our customers' costs lower than industry averages. Our focus on accurate site assessments, robust technical specifications, and public sector procurement best practices results in our clients' projects costing over 30% less than the industry average, as shown in the graphic at the right. Our production estimates and financial forecasts have also proven accurate overtime. In addition to the basic financial inputs expected in a solar analysis, such as incentives and utility cost escalators, our robust financial model include analysis of available tariffs, such as Time of Use (TOU) and RES -BCT, allowing our clients consider all available options with confidence. Our financial models have been used by many clients to make solar investment decisions in the past two years, serving as the basis for contracts valued at over $170 million and installed capacity of more than 34 MW. We regularly compare our forecasts to actual system performance as part of our support of clients through the entire lifecycle of a solar project. As an example, the chart below shows average monthly performance, normalized by system size, for three PV systems at a Water District compared with the average performance of fixed tilt systems in the same county. There are several periods during the three and one-half year measured period showing anomalies in system performance, warranting a more detailed performance analysis. The Operations Center performance deviates from the county average in the Fall of 2012, 2013, and 2014, and the Headquarters system production drops sharply in the Fall of 2014 through Spring 2015. Copyright © Newcomb Anderson McCormick 2017 25A-31 CITY OF SANTA ANA