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4.0 TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHODOLOGY <br />In order to estimate the traffic impact characteristics of the proposed Project, a multi-step process <br />has been utilized. The first step is traffic generation, which estimates the total arriving and departing <br />traffic on a peak hour and daily basis. The traffic generation potential is forecast by applying the <br />appropriate vehicle trip generation equations or rates to the project development tabulation. <br />The second step of the forecasting process is traffic distribution, which identifies the origins and <br />destinations of inbound and outbound project traffic. These origins and destinations are typically <br />based on demographics and existing/expected future travel patterns in the study area. <br />The third step is traffic assignment, which involves the allocation of project traffic to study area <br />streets and intersections. Traffic assignment is typically based on minimization of travel time, which <br />may or may not involve the shortest route, depending on prevailing operating conditions and travel <br />speeds. Traffic distribution patterns are indicated by general percentage orientation, while traffic <br />assignment allocates specific volume forecasts to individual roadway links and intersection turning <br />movements throughout the study area. <br />With the forecasting process complete and project traffic assignments developed, the impact of the <br />proposed project is isolated by comparing operational (LOS) conditions at selected key intersections <br />using expected future traffic volumes with and without forecast project traffic. The need for site- <br />specific and/or cumulative local area traffic improvements can then be evaluated and the <br />significance of the project’s impacts identified. <br />3-78