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estimates for employees at buildout of pipeline uses from numerous sources that track economic and employment
<br />trends in various land uses (office, retail, industrial, and hotel).
<br />Estimated workday spending per employee data from estimates by the International Council of Shopping Centers'
<br />Research Department was applied to the total number of employees.
<br />In the subsequent step, AECOM estimated Project retail demand capture rates of employee expenditures within a'M,
<br />mile radius and within a 2-mile radius based on reasonable assumptions of spending of the types of retail
<br />establishments likely to occupy the space as outlined in the Project development program.
<br />Table 13: Retail Expenditures - Hotels
<br />Estimated Bowery Capture of Hotel Guest Retail Expentlitures
<br />1/2 Mile Radius
<br />2 Mile Radius'
<br />Total
<br />Current BuiltlouC*
<br />lCurrent BuiMout**
<br />lCurrent Builtlout**
<br />Hotel Guest (average per night)
<br />125 298
<br />3,066 3,066
<br />3,191
<br />3,364
<br />Awrage Annual Spending/Guest...
<br />$13,000 $13,000
<br />$13,000 $13,000
<br />$13,000
<br />$13,000
<br />Total Annual Guest Spending
<br />$1,630,000 $3,880,000
<br />$39,850,000 $39,850,000
<br />$41,500,000
<br />$43,750,000
<br />Site Capture %
<br />10% 10%
<br />2.5% 2.5%
<br />2.5%
<br />2.5%
<br />Total Estimated Hotel Guest Sales Capture
<br />$163,000 $388,000
<br />$995,000 $995,000
<br />$1,160,000
<br />$1,385,000
<br />'2 Mile Radius is exclusive of 12 Vile Radius to awitl double counting. Numbers are rounded and maynot sum.
<br />"Assumes stable occupancy of Staybritlge Suites
<br />"'Basetl on CBRE 2018 data for occupancy
<br />Source: Coster, CBRE, AECOM
<br />Estimates from hotel guest expenditures were also estimated. AECOM estimates that hotel guests could generate
<br />approximately $1.2 million in total expenditures under current conditions and $1.4 million at buildout that could be
<br />captured by Project retail at buildout of land uses in the current pipeline.
<br />CBRE includes the Project in the Orange County Airport sub -market that spans the adjacent areas of Santa Ana,
<br />Irvine, and Tustin. The 2018 CBRE report estimates that hotel occupancy for this sub -market averaged 76% with 1.35
<br />guests per room night.
<br />Staybridge Suites is the only hotel project in the current pipeline, but developments in the Tustin Legacy Specific Plan
<br />or the Irvine Business Complex Community Development could add more hotel rooms to the inventory in the future.
<br />Because those are not included in the pipeline and not expected to be built in the near future, they have not been
<br />included in this analysis.
<br />Table 14: Retail Expenditures Total
<br />Estimated Bowery Capture of Household, Employee and Hotel Guest Retail Expenditures
<br />1/2 Mile Radius
<br />2 Mile Radius'
<br />Total
<br />Current BuiltlouC*
<br />Current BuiMout**
<br />Current Builtlout**
<br />Total Estimated HH E entlitures Capture
<br />0 $3,525,000
<br />$2,460,000 $3,455,000
<br />$163,000 $388,000
<br />$11,980,000 $12,250,000
<br />$11,230,000 $11,780,000
<br />$995,000 $995,000
<br />$11,980,000 $15,680,005
<br />$13,690,000 $15,235,000
<br />$1,160,000 $1,385,000
<br />Total Estimated Employee E entlitures Capture
<br />Total Estimated Hotel Guest Sales Capture
<br />Total Estimated Retail Demand Capture
<br />$2,620,000 $7,260,000
<br />$23,610,000 $27,480,000
<br />$26,830,000 $32,300,009
<br />Supportable Retail SF($350/SF)
<br />7,800 22,000
<br />71,000 75,000
<br />80,000 96,000
<br />Supportable Retail SF($425/SF)
<br />6500 18,000
<br />58,000 6-
<br />l66 ,80,000
<br />'2 Mile Radius is exclusive of 1/2 Vile Radius to awitl double counting. Numbers are rounded and maynot sum.
<br />"Assumes stable occupancyof The Heritage, Bowery, Flight, Staybritlge Suits and all known current pipeline.
<br />-Su Retail SF has beengrossed u to account fora 5%strutlural vacancy.
<br />Source: ESRI, BLS, LEND, Coster, Celi(ornia DOF, =,, AECOM
<br />The estimated capturable expenditures from residential, employee, and visitors were then combined to establish a
<br />reasonable estimate of total estimated expenditure capture by Project retail and supportable retail space. AECOM
<br />estimates that Project retail could capture an estimate of approximately $26.8 million in retail expenditures under
<br />current conditions and $32.3 million at buildout of land uses in the current pipeline.
<br />A range of $350-$425 of retail sales per SF was utilized to establish an approximate range of retail space at the
<br />Project.
<br />AECOM estimates that the Project could capture sufficient residential, employee, and visitor spending to support
<br />between 65,000-80,000 SF of new retail space under current conditions and between 80,000-96,000 SF at buildout of
<br />uses currently in the pipeline.
<br />75C-646
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