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75C - PH - THE BOWERY
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Last modified
8/13/2020 5:10:27 PM
Creation date
8/13/2020 4:53:25 PM
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City Clerk
Doc Type
Agenda Packet
Agency
Planning & Building
Item #
75C
Date
8/18/2020
Destruction Year
2025
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3. Development Feasibility <br />AECOM estimated the residual land value (RLV) of the land uses according to the development scenarios of both the <br />Project and Industrial Prototype and considered the projected market demand for these land uses in the City of Santa <br />Ana and representative comparable districts of Orange County. This analysis allows a comparison of the highest and <br />best use for the Site, from a development perspective, and the financial implications of development under current <br />market conditions. The use of the Industrial Prototype is to compare the impact of the Project to that of the Industrial <br />Prototype. <br />The feasibility analysis of the various land uses is based on a static pro forma model, which simulates the economic <br />conditions a developer would consider in deciding whether to pursue a project. As such, the model includes typical <br />direct and indirect costs a developer would incur, market revenue potential, and a standard rate of return a developer <br />would expect as compensation. Total estimated project costs (including the assumed return) are subtracted from <br />estimated project revenue to arrive at a net residual land value. Figure 14 details a simplified infographic of RLV. If the <br />net value is positive and high enough to pay for land at current market rates, the project is considered financially <br />feasible. Otherwise, the proposed project is considered infeasible. This approach generates a broad estimate of <br />development feasibility, which is acceptable for planning -level analysis. <br />Figure 14: Residual Land Value <br />uevempmem LUUs <br />Table 15 shows the summary results of the pro -forma analysis and estimation of RLV for both the Project and <br />Industrial Prototype. Assumptions about rents for the various land uses were derived from the market assessment <br />and selection of representative projects in Orange County. RLV calculations are sensitive to fluctuations in the market <br />for both rents and development costs (hard and soft) and offer only a broad estimate of actual market prices. <br />Table 15: Residual Land Value Summary <br />Residual Land Value Summary <br />The Pro act <br />Industrial Prototype <br />Site Acres <br />14.7 <br />14.7 <br />Floor to Area Ratio (FAR) <br />1.80 <br />0.45 <br />Gross Building Area (GBA) <br />1,150,000 <br />355,000 <br />Estimated Total Value <br />$509,000,000 <br />$65,406,977 <br />Estimated Total Costs <br />$444,000,000 <br />$48,490,005 <br />Residual Land Value RLV <br />$65,000,000 <br />$16,916,972 <br />RLV per Land SF <br />$100 <br />$26 <br />RLV per GBA SF <br />$55 <br />$56 <br />Feasible <br />Yes <br />Yes <br />Note: Numbers are rounded and my not sum <br />Sources. Costar, CBRE, RS Means, Orange County <br />Register, AECOM <br />75C-647 <br />
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