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Santa Ana Redhill Development
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<br />Prepared for: City of Santa Ana
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<br />AECOM
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<br />Orange County households and employment are expected to be major drivers of demand for residential uses at the
<br />Site, while retail demand is expected to be driven more by local growth.
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<br />Table 3: Projected Household Growth
<br />Projected Household Growth
<br /> 2012 2020 2035 2040 2020-40 Growth
<br />Irvine 81,835 109,488 122,088 123,364 13%
<br />Santa Ana 73,261 74,886 75,471 75,831 1%
<br />Tustin 25,568 27,234 27,778 27,940 3%
<br />Orange County 999,361 1,073,174 1,136,745 1,153,713 8%
<br />Source: SCAG, AECOM
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<br />The proposed unit mix of the Project includes 228 studios, 574 1-bedroom, 283 2-bedroom units and 15 3-bedroom
<br />units, which suggests orientation towards singles and young families that differ significantly in demographic features
<br />from the relatively large average Santa Ana household size of approximately 4.4 members per household (according
<br />to US Census Bureau ACS 5-year estimates).
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<br />Ta ble 4: Projected Employment Growth
<br />Projected Employment Growth
<br /> 2012 2020 2035 2040 2020-40 Growth
<br />Irvine 224,435 280,649 313,960 320,033 14%
<br />Santa Ana 154,800 160,604 165,159 165,975 3%
<br />Tustin 37,616 51,818 64,599 66,425 28%
<br />Orange County 1,526,227 1,730,085 1,870,025 1,898,685 10%
<br />Source: SCAG, AECOM
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<br />Employment in the City of Santa Ana is projected to grow at just 3% overall between 2020 and 2040. During the
<br />same time period SCAG estimates Orange County will see a 14% increase in overall employment while growth in
<br />Irvine and Tustin is estimated to be 10% and 28% respectively over the same period. Demand for industrial, flex or
<br />other commercial uses at the Site will result from this wider growth, and the significant industrial/flex/office cluster in
<br />Dyer South and the neighboring districts is potentially positioned to capture a portion of this growth.
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<br />Market Trends
<br />While demand for residential and industrial uses is expected to draw on regional growth primarily from Orange
<br />County, detailed characteristics of the retail market potential of the Site is expected to be more reflective of trends in
<br />the immediate market area, or approximately a 2-mile radius around the Site. The 2-mile radius encompasses the
<br />entirety of the Dyer South and Tustin Legacy districts, approximately 2/3 of the Irvine Business Complex, and the
<br />cluster of industrial land uses in southeastern Santa Ana. Trends such as vacancy rates, average rents, and inventory
<br />growth in the 2-mile radius of the various proposed land-uses offer insights that could determine the development
<br />feasibility of the Project and the Industrial Prototype. Figure 3 shows the geographical context of the 2-mile radius.
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