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Orange RPU 2023 Biennial Modification to PY 2021-24 Regional Plan
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<br />C. Analysis of Industries and Occupations with Existing and Emerging Demand
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<br />The RPU analyzed location quotient, total jobs, and competitive effect data to identify
<br />industries and occupations with emerging demand. An analysis of location quotient data
<br />demonstrated which occupations and industries are specialized in the Orange County
<br />region (compared to the national average). The competitive effect indicates how much
<br />job change results from some distinct competitive advantage in the area. The competitive
<br />effect measures the job change that cannot be explained by national growth and industry
<br />mix. The difference in competitive effect points to regional-specific factors on the change
<br />in local employment numbers. Factors such as labor force training and education, skills,
<br />transportation, supply chains, aging demographics, and other regionally influenced
<br />factors may impact these industries’ and occupations’ competitiveness.
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<br />Using the 3-digit NAICS code, the
<br />emerging industries identified had a
<br />location quotient that increased
<br />between 2017 and 2022 and had a
<br />location quotient of less than 1.2. The
<br />industry list was filtered to include
<br />industries with a competitive effect
<br />greater than 1 percent change in jobs
<br />higher than 10% and more than 1,000 jobs. The following chart consists of a list of the
<br />top thirteen emerging industries in Orange County. This combined list of sectors
<br />accounted for 321,154 jobs in 2022. This group of industries is projected to grow to
<br />490,109 jobs by 2027.
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<br />Industries with Emerging Demand
<br />NAICS Description 2017
<br />Jobs
<br />2022
<br />Jobs
<br />2017 -
<br />2022
<br />Change
<br />2017 -
<br />2022 %
<br />Change
<br />Competitive
<br />Effect
<br />2017
<br />Location
<br />Quotient
<br />2022
<br />Location
<br />Quotient
<br />812 Personal and Laundry Services 14,962 17,548 2,586 17% 3,022 0.92 1.12
<br />621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 83,749 96,902 13,153 16% 5,060 1.04 1.12
<br />624 Social Assistance 41,158 49,209 8,051 20% 4,189 1.00 1.11
<br />446 Health and Personal Care Stores 11,540 12,173 633 5% 1,104 0.98 1.09
<br />611 Educational Services 26,794 32,837 6,044 23% 5,177 0.86 1.03
<br />325 Chemical Manufacturing 7,937 8,844 908 11% 315 0.87 0.92
<br />454 Nonstore Retailers 5,371 6,377 1,006 19% 405 0.84 0.91
<br />623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 26,290 26,328 39 0% 2,887 0.71 0.81
<br />814 Private Households 1,624 1,903 278 17% 690 0.51 0.81
<br />312 Beverage and Tobacco Product
<br />Manufacturing 1,862 2,359 497 27% 124 0.64 0.68
<br />622 Hospitals 31,995 32,653 658 2% 516 0.58 0.59
<br />902 State Government 25,468 25,822 354 1% 940 0.50 0.52
<br />515 Broadcasting (except Internet) 962 1,006 44 5% 177 0.32 0.40
<br />484 Truck Transportation 5,016 6,074 1,058 21% 776 0.31 0.36
<br />481 Air Transportation 903 1,119 216 24% 237 0.17 0.21
<br />Source: LIGHTCAST, 2023
<br />Mature Growing
<br />Location Quotients are
<br />greater than 1.2 and
<br />steadily decreasing
<br />Location Quotients are
<br />greater than 1.2 and
<br />steadily increasing
<br />Declining Emerging
<br />Location Quotient is less
<br />than 1.2 and steadily
<br />decreasing
<br />Location Quotient is less
<br />than 1.2 and steadily
<br />increasing
<br />EXHIBIT 1
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