Item 09 - Biennial Modification to the PY 2021-24 Regional and Local Workforce Plan

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Orange RPU 2023 Biennial Modification to PY 2021-24 Regional Plan 4 II. ANALYTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE REGION There is no question that the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the region’s communities, labor market, and economy. The education system, with many schools closed for in-person instruction schools adapted to new ways of teaching and learning. Many schools moved to remote or online learning during the pandemic. Schools have reopened, and many continue to offer hybrid programs where students alternate between in-person and online instruction. However, the disruption in higher education is still felt with low enrollments. California's community college enrollments have reached the lowest rate in three decades. Since 2019, enrollment at over 116 campuses has dropped by an estimated 300,000 students, a drastic decrease of 18%. The four Orange County Community College Districts have seen a reduction in the student count in the Spring of 2022 by 43,732 compared to the same semester in 2019. Economic factors will likely continue influencing student decisions amid rising inflation, the possibility of a recession, and California’s high cost of living. Finances and family responsibilities often take precedence over education for low-income families. A survey conducted by the RP Group, a nonprofit research center, of former California community college students found that one-third haven’t re-enrolled because they’ve prioritized work. At the same time, 22% said they have prioritized taking care of family or other dependents. Another 29% said they struggled to keep up with their classes 3. Orange County’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) took a hit in 2020, dropping to 222,683,756.4 Orange County’s economy ranked 3rd in California and 8th nationally in 2021 based on its GDP. Orange County has employed 1,598,700 in nonfarm jobs as of December 2022. The median household income was $85,400 in 2018, $25,100 above the national average.5 A little over a year after the COVID-19 pandemic began, economists and other observers noted an increase in the job quit rate, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program. While JOLTS recorded a seasonally adjusted quit rate of 2.4% in the second month of the program’s existence (January 2001), this rate was not surpassed until March 2021, when it reached 2.5 percent. The rate rose to 2.8% in April 2021, then 3.0% in December 20216. The rise in the quit rate has been called the “Great Resignation,” with many popular press articles speculating why individuals have become more willing to leave their current employers. The fact that the labor force participation rate remains below its pre-pandemic high suggests that some who quit their jobs found new jobs, and others exited the labor force. 3 Statewide Covid-19 Impact Surveys of Students and Employees 4 “GDP: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” GDP | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), www.bea.gov/data/gdp. 5 Lightcast, 2021, https://analyst.lightcast.io/. 6 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) Year GDP 2017 $ 247,314,645 2018 $ 225,920,029 2019 $ 230,680,258 2020 $ 222,683,756 2021 $ 238,228,949 EXHIBIT 1