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RFP No. 21-025 <br />EXHIBIT B <br />Monte Carlo Risk Analysis <br />These two POB savings scenarios were run through a Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo <br />simulation is a finance industry tool used to run several scenarios, based on randomly generated <br />interest rate scenarios to determine the potential outcome of a future event. In this case, the <br />model produced random portfolio rates of return over a 25-year period to compare the ending <br />portfolio value under a POB and making regularly scheduled UAL payments, also incorporating <br />POB savings and additional bases, which are discounted back at 7.0% rate. The model generates <br />10,000 scenarios to determine an expected value or probability of success. <br />$1,200 <br />$1,000 <br />$800 <br />$600 <br />$400 <br />$200 <br />$0 <br />Monte Carlo Simulation <br />Ending Portfolio Balance <br />1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 <br />The Monte Carlo model projected an 87% and 84% probability of success under the 90% and 50% <br />POB scenarios. Additionally, both POB scenarios generated greater portfolio growth over the 25- <br />year period when compared to POB savings by 84% and 76% respectfully. <br />Probability of <br />Portfolio Growth <br />Success <br />Exceeding POB <br />Savings <br />90% POBs <br />87% <br />82% <br />50% POBs <br />84% <br />76% <br />We believe the combination of pension reform legislation, CAPERS' requirement for fixed dollar <br />UAL payments, and changes in the POB market, make it compelling to consider the issuance of <br />POBs are part of the City's pension funding strategy. <br />Understanding the Risks Associated with Pension Obligation Bonds <br />The Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) has provided an advisory against the <br />issuance of POBs, noting 5 key issues or concerns. The GOFA's POB policy general advisory, which <br />