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Y-+~ } iT ~i~ ~ ~ _ - 'F f ; F 6_r H-r ~ - ~ STU©Y ONE: SANTA ANA/T'USTIN 't` Task A: Forecast Traffic The purpose of this task is to quantify future development, develop the traffi be used for the nexus analysis, and document information about future roadway improvements {committed Improvements as well as other potential improvemen#s in the study area}. The two Cities will provide lists and traffic studies that identify proposed future developments w(ihln the study area (the area covered by the JPA). If these developments represent less than full 4 buildout of the respective General Plans, it Is assumed that the Cities will also provide information 4 about other potential future development (land use 1 scenario. Estimates of development timing will be ob#a ned from the~reports orlfrom City staff 35 A To be able to use the land use Information as the basis for OCTAM trip forecasting (rather 1 than relying on OCTAM's socioeconomic forecasts), we will apply OCTA's Subarea Modeling ~ Guidelines: convert the land use data to socioeconomic data and then generate trips (productions and attractions) by purpose. 1 ~ Analysis of existing traffic conditions wifl be needed as a base for developing the future traffic ~ forecasts, and to demonstrate that the improvements in the fee program are not addressing existing congestion problems. Since traffic volumes are somewhat lower than normal during the current recessionary period, any new traffic counts will be reviewed and adjusted if necessary to be consistent with pre-recession counts. We are proposing several adaptations of OCTAM so the modeling will address the particular needs of this s#udy: ¦ Since OCTAM 3.3 has only two scenarios (base year 2003 and future year 2035), we will develop an interim (10-year) forecasting scenario by interpolating between 2003 and 2035. ' We will incorporate the land use-based tri trip levels outside the local area to provide reasonatble growth nAbac ground ((through) trafficM for each of the horizon years. ' We wifl adjust trip generation to account #or reduced trip-making associated with mixed use and transit-oriented developments. ¦ We will post-process (adjust) the raw model outputs so the future forecasts will be based on, and consistent w1th, the existing traffic counts. As part of the modeling in this task, we will produce future traffic forecasts and Level of Service results for the study area roads and intersections, to lay the groundwork for identification of needed improvements in Task B. The updated list of committed improvements will be used In Task 13 to help identify potential improvements to alleviate existing congestion and near-term ('I0-year) future congestion. The updated cost allocation table will provide information on sources and amounts of committed funding, so that those amounts will be excluded from the fee calculations 1n Task C. 8 tTL770153.09 - _ ~ and Associates, inc. 25C-18