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Task 7 - Ridership Forecasts In the Small Starts or New Starts application processes, the FTA carefully reviews the methods used to develop transit ridership forecasts. While the FTA does not proscribe the parameters or procedures that should be used or approve the actual forecasting procedures, they have guidelines that should be followed. Two key focus areas are (1) how reasonably the models explain transit user decisions as demonstrated by their reproduction of recently collected on -board survey data and transit ridership counts, and (2) the reasonability of mode choice model coefficients and constants. The Cordoba team developed a transit ridership forecasting procedure for the Conceptual Engineering task that was consistent with FTA guidelines. "Data driven" techniques were used based on data from OCTA's recent transit on- board survey coupled with incremental logit model procedures. The data driven techniques are similar to innovative techniques that the FTA presented in a 2009 New and Small Starts workshop in Phoenix. This approach has received conditional approval from FTA. The proposed approach for the Pre -Preliminary Engineering Analysis is to confirm and, if necessary, adjust the transit ridership forecasting procedure through formal coordination with FTA staff, update transit networks and socioeconomic forecasts for the project opening year, and produce refined transit ridership forecasts. A key statistic for FTA New Starts / Small Starts is User Benefits, expressed as travel time savings that accrue from a project. While the travel models are the basis for estimating travel time savings, FTA recognizes that most conventional travel models do not capture three categories of attributes providing additional User Benefits for fixed guideway alternatives: 1) Guideway -like characteristics, 2) Span of service, and 3) Passenger amenities. FTA allows projects to include credits for fixed guideway alternatives if the sponsor can demonstrate the project possesses the attributes identified above. A maximum benefit of 15 minutes of travel time savings is possible per new rider. The Cordoba Team will work closely with FTA to ensure that the maximum benefits can be applied to the project. Cambridge Systematics has considerable experience working with FTA to develop ridership forecasts for rail transit projects and for Section 5309 grant applications; they have prepared the 2035 ridership forecasts for the Santa Ana and Garden Grove Fixed Guideway Corridor Study. They will lead the development of the ridership forecasts for Pre - Preliminary Engineering Analysis, with support and input from JPC. Jennifer John of John Parker Consulting (JPC) in Portland prepared the Ridership Forecasts and associated submittal materials for the successful Portland Streetcar Loop Small Starts application. She will oversee the work on this task and will assist SOJ with coordination of the analysis and submittal to FTA. She will be fully supported by CSI, who will work with her and the rest of the project team to insure the most favorable outcome possible for the project in terms of the Cost Effectiveness rating. This may require modifications to the model procedures as well as additional data collection. Task 8 - FTA Summit Analysis Cambridge Systematics (CSI) has developed forecasting procedures that are compatible with OCTAM and that will allow for the output of appropriate model components to be used with the FTA Summit software tool for the Santa Ana — Garden Grove Fixed Guideway project. This software tool will be used to assist with analysis of the alternatives under consideration for thisro'ect. JPC will analyze the model P 1 yz o el and Summit outputs for the alternatives I ernatives and will work with the project team and stakeholders as needed to determine what, if any, changes should be made in order to better position the alternatives from both a project standpoint in terms of providing the best possible Section Three — Work Plan 34