2014-028 - Approving General Plan Amendement No. 2014-01

Home Browse Search

City of Santa Ana -Park View at Town and Country Manor Draft EIR 4.8 - Climate Chan 4.8.1 - Introduction Climate This section describes the existing climate setting and potential effects from project implementation on the site and its surrounding area. Descriptions and analysis in this section are based on information contained in the Climate Change Analysis Report prepared in August 2009 by Michael Brandman Associates, included in this EIR as Appendix F, Climate Change. 4.8.2 - Existing Conditions Climate change is a change in the average weather of the earth that may be measured by alterations in wind patterns, storms, precipitation, and temperature. These changes are assessed using historical records of temperature changes occurring in the past, such as during previous ice ages. Many of the concerns regarding climate change use this data to extrapolate a level of statistical significance specifically focusing on temperature records from the last 150 years (the Industrial Age) that differ from previous climate changes in rate and magnitude. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) constructed several emission trajectories of greenhouse gases needed to stabilize global temperatures and climate change impacts. The IPCC predicted that global mean temperature change from 1990 to 2100, given six scenarios, could range from 1.1 degrees Celsius ( °C) to 6.4 °C. Regardless of analytical methodology, global average temperatures and sea levels are expected to rise under all scenarios. In California, climate change may result in consequences such as the following. • A reduction in the quality and supply of water to the State from the Sierra snowpack. If heat - trapping emissions continue unabated, more precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, and the snow that does fall will melt earlier, reducing the Sierra Nevada spring snowpack by as much as 70 to 90 percent. This can lead to challenges in securing adequate water supplies. It can also lead to a potential reduction in hydropower. • Increased risk of large wildfires. If precipitation increases as temperatures rise, wildfires in the grasslands and chaparral ecosystems of southern California are expected to increase by approximately 30 percent toward the end of the 21st century because more winter rain will stimulate the growth of more plant "fuel" available to burn in the fall. In contrast, a hotter, drier climate could promote up to 90 percent more northern California fires by the end of the century by drying out and increasing the flammability of forest vegetation. • Reductions in the quality and quantity of certain agricultural products. The crops and products likely to be adversely affected include wine grapes, fruit, nuts, and milk. • Exacerbation of air quality problems. If temperatures rise to the medium warming range, there could be 75 to 85 percent more days with weather conducive to ozone formation in Los Angeles and the San Joaquin Valley, relative to today's conditions. This is more than twice the increase expected if rising temperatures remain in the lower warming range. Michael Brandman Associates 4.8 -1 H\Cl t(PN -Rn) 327b32]003MMVB2]0030 Sec0 Clore Ch ge dac