2014-069 - Final Environmental Impact Report No. 2014-01

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HARBOR BLVD. MIXED USE TRANSIT CORRIDOR PLAN FINAL FIR CITY OF SANTA ANA 5. Environmental Analysis GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS new inventory identifies that an estimated 80 MMTCO2C of reductions are necessary to achieve the statewide emissions reduction of AB 32 by 2020, 15.7 percent of the projected emissions compared to BAU in year 2020 (i.e., 15.7 percent of 507 MMTCO2C) (CARB 2012b). CARB is in the process of completing a five -year update to the 2008 Scoping Plan, as required by AB 32. A discussion draft of the 2013 Scoping Plan was released on October 1, 2013. The 2013 Scoping Plan update defines CARB's climate change priorities for the next five years and lays the groundwork to reach post 2020 goals in Executive Orders 5 -3 -05 and B -16 -2012. The update includes the latest scientific findings related to climate change and its impacts, including short -lived climate pollutants. The GHG target identified in the 2008 Scoping Plan is based on IPCC's GWPs identified in the Second and Thud Assessment Reports. IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report identified more recent GWP values based on the latest available science. CARB recalculated the 1990 GHG emission levels with these updated GWPs, and the 427 MMTCO2e 1990 emissions level and 2020 GHG emissions limit, established in response to AB 32, is slightly higher, at 431 MMTCO2C (CARB 2013). The 2013 update highlights California's progress toward meeting the near term 2020 GHG emission reduction goals defined in the original 2008 Scoping Plan. As identified in the 2013 Scoping Plan update, California is on track to meeting the goals of AB 32. However, the 2013 Scoping Plan also addresses the state's longer -term GHG goals within a post 2020 element. The post 2020 element provides a high level view of a long -term strategy for meeting the 2050 GHG goals, including a recommendation for the state to adopt a midterm target. According to the 2013 Scoping Plan update, reducing emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels will require a fundamental shift to efficient, clean energy in every sector of the economy. Progressing toward California's 2050 climate targets will require significant acceleration of GHG reduction rates. Emissions from 2020 to 2050 will have to decline several times faster than the rate needed to reach the 2020 emissions limit (CARB 2013). Senate Bi11375 Senate Bill 375. In 2008, SB 375 was adopted to achieve the GHG reduction targets in the Scoping Plan for the transportation sector through local land use decisions that affect travel behavior. Implementation is intended to reduce VMf and GHG emissions from light duty trucks and automobiles (excludes emissions associated with goods movement) by aligning regional long -range transportation plans, investments, and housing allocations with local land use planning. Specifically, SB 375 requires CARB to establish GHG emissions reduction targets for each of the 17 regions in California managed by a metropolitan planning organization (MPO). Pursuant to the recommendations of the Regional Transportation Advisory Committee, CARB adopted per capita reduction targets for each of the MPOs rather than a total magnitude reduction target. SCAG is the MPO for the southern California region, which includes the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura, and Imperial. SCAG's targets are an 8 percent per capita reduction from 2005 GHG emission levels by 2020 and a 13 percent per capita reduction from 2005 GHG emission levels by 2035. The 2020 targets are smaller than the 2035 targets because a significant portion of the built environment in 2020 has been defined by decisions that have already been made. In general, the 2020 scenarios reflect that more time is needed for large land use and transportation infrastructure changes. Most of the reductions in October 2014 Page 5.5 -9