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AECOM <br />The Santa Ana employment and industry profile will be compared to the region and the nation as a <br />whole. A location quotient and shift -share analysis of industry will be prepared. The export orientation <br />of selected industries will be described using data sources as the Orange County Community <br />Investments Division industry cluster analyses. Average wage of clusters by category will be <br />documented. Existing jobs/housing balance will be compared to the county as a whole and nearby cities. <br />Task 2.3 Market Trends <br />Retail, Office, and Industrial <br />AECOM will document and analyze retail, office, and industrial trends overtime including the <br />rental/lease rates (NNN), vacancy rates, and absorption and the competitive environment, augmented <br />by identified planned and proposed projects using the best available data from sources such as Costar, <br />brokerage houses, and others. Characteristics of the market will be evaluated including different <br />categories, size and sales. Again, we will validate recent market research which will likely reveal the <br />continuation of recent trends rates in Santa Ana as compared to Orange County and neighboring cities. <br />For the retail sector we will estimate existing and future Santa Ana income levels and average amount <br />spent per household to estimate the total resident buying power and the amount of retail leakage that <br />is occurring in Santa Ana as well as potential for additional retail attraction to the market. Factors such <br />as the growth in Internet sales will be taken into account based on national trends and accounted for in <br />the assessment of leakage and potential retail attraction. Comparisons to neighboring cities will be <br />made. <br />We will add factors for worker purchases and visitor -related purchases to estimate aggregate buying <br />power potential. Based on market share assumptions given the existing and anticipated competitive <br />environment, we will estimate captured sales in Santa Ana by major retail category and translate these <br />sales into supportable space and land area given sales/square foot factors, stabilized occupancy rates, <br />and FAR assumptions. We will conduct sensitivity analysis of key variables to estimate supportable space <br />under up to three scenarios. <br />Again utilizing data from sources such as Costar and others, industrial and office trends of the Santa Ana <br />area will be documented and analyzed. This will include a more detailed evaluation of the key industrial <br />and office employers by sector. As necessary additional data will be drawn from the Census, Bureau of <br />Labor Statistics, and similar sources if it is necessaryto augment existing city background data from <br />previous documents such as the aforementioned Santa Ana Economic Development Strategic Plan. <br />Vacancy rates and asking rent per square foot for industrial and office space will be documented by <br />location and by type based on secondary data sources for the Santa Ana market as a whole and the <br />opportunity areas. Net absorption will also be documented for Santa Ana and the same opportunity <br />areas. <br />Potential market demand will be based on historical absorption trends and projected employment in <br />those sectors that generate demand for industrial and office space for Santa Ana, compared to the <br />25M-64 <br />