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AECOM <br />county as a whole, and neighboring cities and also for the opportunity areas as compared to similar <br />areas in the region. Potential industrial and office employment will be translated into demand for <br />occupied space and land area at employment density and FAR factors. Major anticipated changes in the <br />market that could result in significant changes in historical trends, positively or negatively, will be <br />identified. One of the key questions to address for each of these three sectors is the extent to which <br />market rents support new construction costs, and, if not, how much would they have to increase in real <br />terms to support new construction. <br />Housing Market Trends <br />The existing housing stock will be documented to include age, type, and current market costs for <br />ownership and rental housing based on the most recent data available from secondary data sources. <br />Costs will include an evaluation of long-term trends in terms of housing value and absorption utilizing <br />information from secondary data sources. Estimates of future housing costs will be projected using long- <br />term residential property appreciation assumptions. <br />AECOM will estimate the minimum income required to afford current and potential future housing <br />based on current standards for rental and ownership costs as a percentage of income. This will then be <br />compared to estimated household income growth and distribution. <br />AECOM will estimate future demand and absorption for housing units based on projected regional <br />population and employment growth, household formation assumptions by age of householder, and size <br />categories, and the portion that could reasonably be expected to accrue to the Santa Ana market. SCAG <br />projections for the county and Santa Ana will augment Census and American Community Survey data <br />where necessary. Various market share assumptions for the Santa Ana market will be applied to test <br />different scenarios for residential, retail, office and industrial growth in the overall market. Residential <br />absorption rates will also be applied to the Land Use Envisioning Map potential residential transition <br />areas to estimate how much of future residential multifamily demand absorbed in those areas at <br />different price points overtime and at the currently identified densities. <br />We also propose two stakeholder group meetings to supplement the analysis. These meetings would <br />include a range of stakeholders from the different sectors as well as neighborhood and community <br />stakeholders that can share challenges of the current housing market. <br />Deliverables: <br />• Two (2) stakeholder group meetings <br />• Draft Existing Conditions Report <br />• Final Existing Conditions Report <br />• 1 Presentation of Existing Conditions Report attended by two AECOM members <br />25M-65 <br />