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geographic area should receive in relation to the projected population for <br />entire county for a given year. The population for each small geographic area <br />was aggregated to larger geographic areas such as Regional Statistical <br />Areas and Community Analysis Areas. <br /> <br /> Three items were considered as population constraint factors: (1) the <br />Residential Saturation Point of each census tract--the amount of undeveloped <br />land available for residential development in each census tract, (2) the <br />availability of public utilities, and (3) where the information could be obtained <br />the intent of major landowners and developers to make housing available <br />at different points in time. <br /> <br /> The Urban Futures Population Allocation Model also incorporated such <br />data as present and forecasted persons per household, composition of the <br />housing stock (multiple and single family dwelling units), vacancies, popula- <br />tion in group quarters, etc. Manipulation of the data in the Urban Futures <br />Population Allocation Model was based on the following assumptions: <br /> <br />1. Practically all potentially developable land will be urbanized. <br /> <br />Local government will accommodate as rapid a rate of populatio~ <br />growth as migration, natural increase and economic conditions <br />produce. <br /> <br />3. No major socio-economic events will disrupt the growth of the <br /> Southern California region over the forecast period. <br /> <br />Transportation and electrical energy supply problems will <br />retard economic growth. <br /> <br />0 <br /> <br />As Orange County continues to grow in population, the urbanized <br />portion will experience greater congestion, degration of air <br />quality, increased housing deterioration, etc,, similar to that <br />experienced in Log Angeles. <br /> <br />Growth in the southern portion of the County will not be con- <br />strained by water and sewer restrictions. <br /> <br />The automobile fuel energy shortage will tend to concentrate <br />population increases closer to employment centers than would <br />have ordinarily occurred. However, the opportunity for long <br />home-work trips will not be drastically limited. <br /> <br />The employment base of the County will increase <br />and diversify, thus reducing the need for longer <br />inter-county home-work trips. <br /> <br />00004. <br /> <br /> <br />