IBI GROUP 4 - 2010 - Laserfiche WebLink

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35 F Task 2 . B Passenger. Demand Forecasts Objective: To develop passenger demand forecasts at SARTC for horizon years 2014, 2020 and 2040. Approach: In order to develop estimates of future passenger demand on SARTC facilities up to 2040 our team will make full use of existing planning databases including any ridership forecasts prepared by the respective transportation providers. The IBI Group Team is familiar with the studies, plans and data available from several transportation providers, including OCTA's Ridership Datamart, which can generate various ridership analysis reports. The IBI Team's familiarity with the above data sources is further complemented by our use and familiarity with OCTA's long range transportation planning model - OCTAM (a Tranplan software model covering Orange County and neighboring area). The current Orange County Transportation Analysis model (OCTAM) has been recently updated to OCTAM 3.2 for Base Year 2006 and we understand that further improvements are on-going. Market Research and Segmentation Analysis: This effort will collect and analyze information on the existing and potential transit / transportation markets to be served by and in proximity to the SARTC, It would involve the following: • Market Characteristics - this sub-task would develop a regional understanding of 2000 Census demographic data and transit agency projections, including general population and employment densities, concentrations of transit-dependent populations (based on breakdown of the population by age, gender, ethnicity, disability, income level, auto ownership/availability), and concentrations of businesses, large employers and activity centers inside and outside the County that support or have the potential to support high levels of transit / transportation services. • Priority Commuter Target Markets/Corridors - this sub-task would identify target markets for commuter transit services by community sector of the service area with an emphasis on the traditional commuter market segments that do not have access to an automobile or cannot drive (these are the transit dependent markets that use or want to use the local transit services for commuting), and the non- traditional commuter markets that do not want to drive for cost and other reasons (these are the pro- transit "discretionary" commuter markets). For each community sector, we will identify and rank the main commuter demands that are or could be served by each of the respective transportation providers through to the year 2040. For the more traditional rubber tired transit service markets including fixed route and community-based services, IBI Group recently prepared a bus service analytical tool - a detailed spreadsheet application for ridership estimation. Initially prepared for MTA, our team is currently modifying this ridership estimation tool for use with OCTA bus services. We would propose modifying the model to reflect service and operating characteristics specific to providers serving the SARTC. Further, by modifying service parameters, as reflected in the respective data fields, we will replicate future provider operating scenarios in order to derive future passenger demand forecasts. City of Santa Ana Santa Ana Regional Transportation Center Master Plan IBI Group 1.25.1 C