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44 Task 7 - Cost Estimates Objective: To develop preliminary capital and operations and maintenance cost estimates for each phase of the SARTC Master Plan implementation for three horizon years 2014, 2020 and 2040 buildout. To conduct a risk analysis. Approach: The following approach will be used to develop the Capital Cost Estimates and the Operations and Maintanence estimates. Capital Cost Estimates: The capital cost for each phase of the project will be calculated at the Conceptual Design level of accuracy. The costs will be prepared according to the Federal Transportation Authority guidelines using the FTA standard cost categories that are used in all grant applications. These costs are based on a mix of industry standards and experience gained form evaluation of similar projects. The conceptual design level will show the general layout of the facilities at each phase 2014, 2020 and at Build Out. Drawings will be prepared that show all features for each of the design concepts in sufficient detail for quantities to be taken off. The concepts will include but not necessarily be limited to: 1. A modest renovation and expansion of the existing facilities. 2. A major rehabilitation and expansion of the entire transport center. 3. Demolition of the existing facilities and design of a completely new facility A matrix cost evaluation will be prepared in which these, or other options to be agreed, will be costed for each of the three development phases. Operating Cost Estimates: Operating and Maintenance Costs will be prepared at Conceptual level of detail from two basic sources: • A cost model will be built that shows each operation and maintenance item together with the staffing required to carry out each task, the equipment required and the probable costs based on this ground- up procedure. • Actual operations and maintenance costs will be obtained from operating systems of a similar nature and size. This historical cost data will be evaluated, updated and modified to suit the Santa Ana situation. • Manufacturers and Suppliers of operating and maintenance equipment will be approached to provide detailed cost estimates for all major cost items. • Contractors will also be approached to provide general information on construction schedules, materials and labor cost trends. Risk Analysis: The risk analysis will be prepared at Concept Level of accuracy. The items included in this analysis will include but not be limited to: • Financial Risks and Financing Methodologies • Inflation Risks