WS-A - WORK STUDY - WELLNESS DISTRICT

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ATTACHMENT The Downtown Tourism Scenario In this scenario the number of weeknight /weekend visitors was increased threefold, to 225,000 visitors making at least three visits each per annum (or to a total of 675,000 visits per annum). The downtown expenditure allocation of these visiting households is also increased as in the above Latino Downtown Revival scenario. The downtown expenditures of the four other segments are held at the current baseline levels. Under such a scenario, downtown Wellness Goods and Food Services sales could be increased by $70 million and Other Wellness Services sales by $23 million, resulting in a total potential increase in purchases of $93 million per annum. Such an increase (which is $44 million less than the Latino Downtown Revival scenario) would likely require substantial further conversion of downtown properties to service the non - resident demographic, as well as considerable development of downtown festivals and events programming and marketing to achieve and sustain such visitor numbers. The prospect of downtown expenditure declines by central Santa Ana residents would need to be considered under this scenario; such declines have not been factored in the above figures. The Post - Latino Downtown Scenario If the expenditures of non - resident segments were substantially increased through a tripling of downtown visitors and also a tripling of new downtown settlers, and through the associated re- purposing of downtown properties for visitors and commuters, then an estimated $100 million in increased Wellness Goods and Services purchases could be achievable (consistent with the assumptions and principles applied in the other above scenarios). Such a scenario has to consider the displacement of existing downtown expenditures by traditional central Santa Ana residents, due to the displacement of their retailers and service providers. For this scenario, we apply a 31% decrease in downtown Wellness Goods and Services expenditures by traditional central Santa Ana residents. However, we estimated a smaller decrease in downtown Food and Beverage Stores purchases by these traditional Santa Ana residents of only 25 %, given the proximity of rood4Less and Northgate in particular. (Even under current conditions, our qualitative research identified instances of central Santa Ana residents shifting their food shopping to superstores such as Costco. The loss of resident identification with the downtown could instigate a further trend towards shopping from large format retail chains and discounters. That being said, the low car ownership of central residents would support continued downtown food shopping by this segment.) Under this scenario, the amount of household Wellness Goods and Services purchases made downtown by central Santa Ana residents would decline from 32% to 23% of their total household purchases in this category. The biggest negative dollar -of -sales impact would be on Groceries, which is the segments' largest category of Wellness Goods purchases. There would be a loss in an estimated $12 million in sales in this category. It is not expected that Weeknight/Weekend Visitors would do grocery shopping downtown, and the estimated increase in the number of New Downtown Settler households purchasing groceries in the downtown area would not replace the reduced sales to central Santa Ana residents. The Post - Latino Downtown scenario would leave unaddressed the substantial, underserved demand for Wellness Goods and Services by central Santa Ana households. This demand would need to be addressed in other convenient Santa Ana commercial locations. The details of the Post - Latino Downtown scenario are presented in Table 9A and Table 913. `nie axtPractice WS—A-21, Ana Wel I ness District A study of demand and supply for wel In ess goods and services